7. FAIR VALUE

Fair Value Summary Table

The carrying values and fair values of Newcastle’s assets and liabilities at September 30, 2012 were as follows: 

*Measured at fair value on a recurring basis.

Valuation Hierarchy

The methodologies used for valuing such instruments have been categorized into three broad levels, which form a hierarchy.

Level 1 - Quoted prices in active markets for identical instruments.

Level 2 - Valuations based principally on other observable market parameters, including 

Level 3 - Valuations based significantly on unobservable inputs. 

Newcastle follows this hierarchy for its financial instruments measured at fair value on a recurring basis. The classifications are based on the lowest level of input that is significant to the fair value measurement.

The following table summarizes such financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis at September 30, 2012:

Newcastle’s investments in instruments (excluding the Excess MSRs, see below) measured at fair value on a recurring basis using Level 3 inputs changed during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 as follows:

Securities Valuation

As of September 30, 2012, Newcastle’s securities valuation methodology and results are further detailed as follows:

All of the assumptions listed have some degree of market observability, based on Newcastle’s knowledge of the market, relationships with market participants, and use of common market data sources. Collateral prepayment, default and loss severity projections are in the form of “curves” or “vectors” that vary for each monthly collateral cash flow projection. Methods used to develop these projections vary by asset class (e.g., CMBS projections are developed differently than home equity ABS projections) but conform to industry conventions. Newcastle uses assumptions that generate its best estimate of future cash flows of each respective security.

The prepayment vector specifies the percentage of the collateral balance that is expected to voluntarily pay off at each point in the future. The prepayment vector is based on projections from a widely published investment bank model which considers factors such as collateral FICO score, loan-to-value ratio, debt-to-income ratio, and vintage on a loan level basis. This vector is scaled up or down to match recent collateral-specific prepayment experience, as obtained from remittance reports and market data services.

Loss severities are based on recent collateral-specific experience with additional consideration given to collateral characteristics. Collateral age is taken into consideration because severities tend to initially increase with collateral age before eventually stabilizing. Newcastle typically uses projected severities that are higher than the historic experience for collateral that is relatively new to account for this effect. Collateral characteristics such as loan size, lien position, and location (state) also effect loss severity. Newcastle considers whether a collateral pool has experienced a significant change in its composition with respect to these factors when assigning severity projections.

Default rates are determined from the current “pipeline” of loans that are more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure, or are real estate owned (REO). These significantly delinquent loans determine the first 24 months of the default vector. Beyond month 24, the default vector transitions to a steady-state value that is generally equal to or greater than that given by the widely published investment bank model.

The discount rates Newcastle uses are derived from a range of observable pricing on securities backed by similar collateral and offered in a live market. As the markets in which Newcastle transacts have become less liquid, Newcastle has had to rely on fewer data points in this analysis.

Loan Valuation

Loans which Newcastle does not have the ability or intent to hold into the foreseeable future are classified as held-for-sale. As a result, these held-for-sale loans are carried at the lower of amortized cost or fair value and are therefore recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis. These loans were written down to fair value at the time of the impairment, based on broker quotations, pricing service quotations or internal pricing models. All the loans were within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy. For real estate related loans, the most significant inputs used in the valuations are the amount and timing of expected future cash flows, market yields and the estimated collateral value of such loan investments. For residential mortgage loans, significant inputs include management’s expectations of prepayment speeds, default rates, loss severities and discount rates that market participants would use in determining the fair values of similar pools of residential mortgage loans.

The following tables summarize certain information for real estate related loans and residential mortgage loans held-for-sale as of September 30, 2012:

Loans which Newcastle has the intent and ability to hold into the foreseeable future are classified as held-for-investment. Loans held-for-investment are carried at the aggregate unpaid principal balance adjusted for any unamortized premium or discount, deferred fees or expenses, an allowance for loan losses, charge-offs and write-downs for impaired loans.

The following table summarizes certain information for residential mortgage loans held-for-investment as of September 30, 2012:

Excess MSRs Valuation

Fair value estimates of Newcastle’s Excess MSRs were based on internal pricing models. The valuation technique is based on discounted cash flows. Significant inputs used in the valuations included expectations of prepayment rates, delinquency rates, recapture rates, the excess mortgage servicing amount of the underlying mortgage loans, and discount rates that market participants would use in determining the fair values of mortgage servicing rights on similar pools of residential mortgage loans. In addition, in valuing the Excess MSRs, management considered the likelihood of Nationstar being removed as servicer, which likelihood is considered to be remote.

The following table summarizes certain information regarding the inputs used in valuing the Excess MSRs as of September 30, 2012: 

All of the assumptions listed have some degree of market observability, based on Newcastle’s knowledge of the market, relationships with market participants, and use of common market data sources.

Prepayment speed projections are in the form of a “vector” that varies over the expected life of the pool. The prepayment vector specifies the percentage of the collateral balance that is expected to prepay voluntarily (i.e., pay off) and involuntarily (i.e., default) at each point in the future. The prepayment vector is based on assumptions that reflect factors such as the borrower’s FICO score, loan-to-value ratio, debt-to-income ratio, vintage on a loan level basis, as well as the projected effect on loans eligible for the Home Affordable Refinance Program 2.0 (“HARP 2.0”). This vector is scaled up or down to match recent collateral-specific prepayment experience. For the Recapture Agreements and recaptured loans, Newcastle also considers industry research on the prepayment experience of similar loan pools. This data is obtained from remittance reports, market data services and other market sources.

Delinquency rates are based on the recent pool-specific experience of loans that missed their most recent mortgage payments. For the Recapture Agreements and recaptured loans, delinquency rates are based on the experience of similar loan pools recently originated by Nationstar and recent delinquency experience. Additional consideration is given to loans that are expected to become 30 or more days delinquent.

Recapture rates are based on recent actual average recapture rates experienced by Nationstar on similar mortgage loan pools.

For existing mortgage pools, excess mortgage servicing amount projections are based on the actual total mortgage servicing amount in excess of a basic fee. For loans expected to be refinanced by Nationstar and subject to a Recapture Agreement, Newcastle considers the excess mortgage servicing amount on loans recently originated by Nationstar and other general market considerations.

The discount rates Newcastle uses are derived from a range of observable pricing on mortgage servicing rights backed by similar collateral.

Newcastle’s MSRs investments measured at fair value on a recurring basis using Level 3B inputs changed during the period ended September 30, 2012 as follows:

Newcastle has various processes and controls in place to ensure that fair value is reasonably estimated. With respect to the broker and pricing service quotations, to ensure these quotes represent a reasonable estimate of fair value, Newcastle’s quarterly procedures include a comparison to the outputs generated from its internal pricing models and transactions Newcastle has completed with respect to these or similar securities, as well as on its knowledge and experience of these markets. With respect to fair value estimates generated based on Newcastle’s internal pricing models, Newcastle’s management validates the inputs and outputs of the internal pricing models by comparing them to available independent third party market parameters and models for reasonableness. Newcastle believes its valuation methods and the assumptions used are appropriate and consistent with other market participants.

For Excess MSRs acquired prior to the current quarter, we obtain a fairness opinion related to the valuation of our Excess MSRs on the existing mortgage pools from an independent valuation firm at the current quarter end date. For Excess MSRs acquired during the current quarter, we obtain a fairness opinion related to the valuation of our Excess MSRs on the existing mortgage pools at the time of acquisition. To date, we have not made any significant valuation adjustments as a result of these third party opinions.

Fair value measurements categorized within Level 3 are sensitive to changes in the assumptions or methodology used to determine fair value and such changes could result in a significant increase or decrease in the fair value. For Newcastle’s investments in real estate securities, real estate related loans and residential mortgage loans categorized within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy, the significant unobservable inputs include the discount rates, assumptions relating to prepayments, default rates and loss severities. Significant increases (decreases) in any of the discount rates, default rates or loss severities in isolation would result in a significantly lower (higher) fair value measurement. The impact of changes in prepayment speeds would have differing impacts on fair value, depending on the seniority of the investment. Generally, a change in the default assumption is generally accompanied by directionally similar changes in the assumptions used for the loss severity and the prepayment speed. For Newcastle’s investments in Excess MSRs, significant unobservable inputs include the discount rate, assumptions relating to prepayments, delinquency rates, recapture rates and excess mortgage servicing amount. Significant increases (decreases) in the discount rates, prepayments or delinquency rates in isolation would result in a significantly lower (higher) fair value measurement, whereas significant increases (decreases) in the recapture rates or excess mortgage servicing amount in isolation would result in a significantly higher (lower) fair value measurement. Generally, a change in the delinquency rate assumption is accompanied by directionally similar changes in the assumptions used for the prepayment speed.

Derivatives

Newcastle’s derivative instruments are valued using counterparty quotations. These quotations are generally based on valuation models with model inputs that can generally be verified and which do not involve significant judgment. The significant observable inputs used in determining the fair value of our Level 2 derivative contracts are contractual cash flows and market based interest rate curves. Newcastle’s derivatives are recorded on its balance sheet as follows:

The following table summarizes information related to derivatives:

The following table summarizes gains (losses) recorded in relation to derivatives:

Liabilities for Which Fair Value is Only Disclosed

The following table summarizes the level of the fair value hierarchy, valuation techniques and inputs used for estimating each class of liabilities not measured at fair value in the statement of financial position but for which fair value is disclosed: