Drive Shack Inc. Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

FAIR VALUE

FAIR VALUE

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2015

Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]

FAIR VALUE

13. FAIR VALUE

Fair Value Summary Table

The following table summarizes the carrying values and estimated fair values of Newcastle’s financial instruments at March 31, 2015:



	Carrying Value		Estimated Fair Value		Fair Value Method (A)
Assets
Real estate securities, available-for-sale	$	231,727	$	231,727	Broker/counterparty quotations, pricing services, pricing models
Real estate securities, pledged as collateral	409,037		409,037		Broker/counterparty quotations
Real estate related and other loans, held-for-sale, net	197,251		213,822		Broker/counterparty quotations, pricing services, pricing models
Residential mortgage loans, held-for-sale, net	3,735		3,889		Broker/counterparty quotations
Subprime mortgage loans subject to call option (B)	406,217		406,217		(B)
Restricted cash	21,874		21,874
Cash and cash equivalents	56,002		56,002

Liabilities
CDO bonds payable (D)	$	216,464	$	121,112	Pricing models
Other bonds and notes payable (D)	25,317		26,212		Broker quotations, pricing models
Repurchase agreements	421,803		421,803		Market comparables
Credit facilities and obligations under capital leases	162,806		162,806		Pricing models
Financing of subprime mortgage loans subject to call option (B)	406,217		406,217		(B)
Junior subordinated notes payable	51,230		39,257		Pricing models
Interest rate swaps, treated as hedges (C)	1,287		1,287		Counterparty quotations
Non-hedge derivatives (C)	3,352		3,352		Counterparty quotations

(A)

Methods are listed in order of priority. In the case of real estate securities and real estate related and other loans, broker quotations are obtained if available and practicable, otherwise counterparty quotations or pricing service valuations are obtained or, finally, internal pricing models are used. Internal pricing models are only used for (i) securities and loans that are not traded in an active market, and, therefore, have little or no price transparency, and for which significant unobservable inputs must be used in estimating fair value, or (ii) loans or debt obligations which are private and untraded.


(B)	Represents an option, not an obligation, to repurchase loans from Newcastle’s subprime mortgage loan securitizations (Note 6).


(C)	Represents derivative liabilities including interest rate swaps and TBA forward contracts (Note 12).

(D)

Newcastle notes that the unrealized gain on the liabilities within such structures cannot be fully realized. Assets held within CDOs and other non-recourse structures are generally not available to satisfy obligations outside of such financings, except to the extent Newcastle receives net cash flow distributions from such structures. Therefore, Newcastle’s exposure to the economic losses from such structures is limited to its invested equity in them and economically their book value cannot be less than zero. As a result, the fair value of Newcastle’s net investments in these non-recourse financing structures is equal to the present value of their expected future net cash flows.

Fair Value Measurements

Valuation Hierarchy

The fair value of financial instruments is categorized based on the priority of the inputs to the valuation technique and categorized into a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable inputs (Level 3). Newcastle follows this hierarchy for its financial instruments measured at fair value.

Level 1 - Quoted prices in active markets for identical instruments.

Level 2 - Valuations based principally on other observable market parameters, including


•	quoted prices in active markets for similar instruments,


•	quoted prices in less active or inactive markets for identical or similar instruments,


•	other observable inputs (such as interest rates, yield curves, volatilities, prepayment speeds, loss severities, credit risks and default rates), and


•	market corroborated inputs (derived principally from or corroborated by observable market data).

Level 3 -Valuations based on inputs that are unobservable and supported by little or no market activity and that are significant to the overall fair value measurement. Level 3 assets and liabilities include financial instruments whose value is determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies, or similar techniques where significant inputs are unobservable, as well as instruments for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

Fair value may be based upon broker quotations, counterparty quotations or pricing services quotations, which provide valuation estimates based upon reasonable market order indications or management's good faith estimate, and are subject to significant variability based on market conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads and market liquidity. A significant portion of Newcastle’s loans, securities and debt obligations are currently not traded in active markets and therefore have little or no price transparency. As a result, Newcastle has estimated the fair value of these illiquid instruments based on internal pricing models rather than quotations.

Newcastle has various processes and controls in place to ensure that fair value measurements are reasonably estimated. With respect to broker and pricing service quotations, and in order to ensure these quotes represent a reasonable estimate of fair value, Newcastle’s quarterly procedures include a comparison of such quotations to quotations from different sources, outputs generated from its internal pricing models and transactions completed, as well as on its knowledge and experience of these markets. With respect to fair value estimates generated based on Newcastle’s internal pricing models, Newcastle’s management validates the inputs and outputs of the internal pricing models by comparing them to available independent third party market parameters and models, where available, for reasonableness. Newcastle believes its valuation methods and the assumptions used are appropriate and consistent with other market participants.

Fair value measurements categorized within Level 3 are sensitive to changes in the assumptions or methodology used to determine fair value and such changes could result in a significant increase or decrease in the fair value. For Newcastle’s investments in real estate securities, real estate related and other loans and residential mortgage loans categorized within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy, the significant unobservable inputs include the discount rates, assumptions relating to prepayments, default rates and loss severities. Significant increases (decreases) in any of the discount rates, default rates or loss severities in isolation would result in a significantly lower (higher) fair value measurement. The impact of changes in prepayment speeds would have differing impacts on fair value, depending on the seniority of the investment. Generally, a change in the default assumption is accompanied by directionally similar changes in the assumptions used for the loss severity and the prepayment speed.

Recurring Fair Value Measurements - Real Estate Securities and Derivatives

The following table summarizes financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis at March 31, 2015:



			Fair Value
	Carrying Value		Level 2		Level 3				Total
			Market Quotations		Market Quotations		Internal Pricing Models
Assets
Real estate securities, available-for-sale:
CMBS	$	178,729	$	—	$	178,729	$	—	$	178,729
Non-Agency RMBS	44,460		—		44,460		—		44,460
CDO (A)	8,538		—		—		8,538		8,538
Equity securities	—		—		—		—		—
Real estate securities, available-for-sale total	$	231,727	$	—	$	223,189	$	8,538	$	231,727

Real estate securities, pledged as collateral:
FNMA/FHLMC	409,037		409,037		—		—		409,037
Real estate securities, pledged as collateral total	$	409,037	$	409,037	$	—	$	—	$	409,037

Liabilities
Derivative liabilities:
Interest rate swaps, treated as hedges	$	1,287	$	1,287	$	—	$	—	$	1,287
Interest rate swaps and TBAs, not treated as hedges	3,352		3,352		—		—		3,352
Derivative liabilities total	$	4,639	$	4,639	$	—	$	—	$	4,639


(A)	Represents non-consolidated CDO securities, excluding eight securities with a zero value, which had an aggregate face amount of $113.8 million as of March 31, 2015.

Significant Unobservable Inputs

The following table provides quantitative information regarding the significant unobservable inputs used by Newcastle for assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of March 31, 2015. This table excludes inputs used to measure fair value that are not developed by Newcastle, such as broker prices and other third-party pricing service valuations.



					Weighted Average Significant Input
Asset Type	Amortized Cost Basis		Fair Value		Discount Rate		Prepayment Speed		Cumulative Default Rate		Loss Severity
CDO	—		8,538		7.4	%	3.6	%	21.7	%	73.6	%
Total	$	—	$	8,538

All of the inputs used in the table have some degree of market observability, based on Newcastle’s knowledge of the market, relationships with market participants, and use of common market data sources. Collateral prepayment, default and loss severity projections are in the form of “curves” or “vectors” that vary for each monthly collateral cash flow projection. Methods used to develop these projections vary by asset class (e.g., CMBS projections are developed differently than home equity ABS projections)but conform to industry conventions. Newcastle uses assumptions that generate its best estimate of future cash flows of each respective security.

The prepayment vector specifies the percentage of the collateral balance that is expected to voluntarily pay off at each point in the future. The prepayment vector is based on projections from a widely published investment bank model which considers factors such as collateral FICO score, loan-to-value ratio, debt-to-income ratio, and vintage on a loan level basis. This vector is scaled up or down to match recent collateral-specific prepayment experience, as obtained from remittance reports and market data services.

Loss severities are based on recent collateral-specific experience with additional consideration given to collateral characteristics. Collateral age is taken into consideration because severities tend to initially increase with collateral age before eventually stabilizing. Newcastle typically uses projected severities that are higher than the historic experience for collateral that is relatively new to account for this effect. Collateral characteristics such as loan size, lien position, and location (state) also effect loss severity. Newcastle considers whether a collateral pool has experienced a significant change in its composition with respect to these factors when assigning severity projections.

Default rates are determined from the current “pipeline” of loans that are more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure, or are REO. These significantly delinquent loans determine the first 24 months of the default vector. Beyond month 24, the default vector transitions to a steady-state value that is generally equal to or greater than that given by the widely published investment bank model.

The discount rates Newcastle uses are derived from a range of observable pricing on securities backed by similar collateral and offered in a live market. As the markets in which Newcastle transacts have become less liquid, Newcastle has had to rely on fewer data points in this analysis.

Newcastle’s investments in instruments measured at fair value on a recurring basis using Level 3 inputs changed during the three months ended March 31, 2015 as follows:



	CMBS			Non-Agency RMBS		Equity/Other Securities		Total
Balance at December 31, 2014	$	178,763		45,035		$	7,956	$	231,754
Total gains (losses)
Included in net income (A)	(48		)	—		—		(48		)
Included in other comprehensive income (loss)	1,392			(1,189	)	582		785
Amortization included in interest income	1,803			2,098		—		3,901
Purchases, sales and repayments
Purchases	—			—		—		—
Proceeds from sales	—			—		—		—
Proceeds from repayments	(3,181		)	(1,484	)	—		(4,665		)
Balance at March 31, 2015	$	178,729		44,460		$	8,538	$	231,727


(A)	These gains (losses) are recorded in the following line items in the consolidated statements of operations:



	Three Months Ended March 31, 2015
Gain (loss) on settlement of investments, net	$	—
Other income (loss), net	—
OTTI	(48		)
Total	$	(48	)

Gain (loss) on settlement of investments, net, from investments transferred into Level 3 during the period	$	—

Non-Recurring Fair Value Measurements - Loans

Loans which Newcastle does not have the ability or intent to hold into the foreseeable future are classified as held-for-sale. As a result, these held-for-sale loans are carried at the lower of amortized cost or fair value and are therefore recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis. These loans were written down to fair value at the time of the impairment, based on broker quotations, pricing service quotations or internal pricing models. All the loans were within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy. For real estate related and other loans, the most significant inputs used in the valuations are the amount and timing of expected future cash flows, market yields and the estimated collateral value of such loan investments. For residential mortgage loans, significant inputs include management’s expectations of prepayment speeds, default rates, loss severities and discount rates that market participants would use in determining the fair values of similar pools of residential mortgage loans.

The following tables summarize certain information for real estate related and other loans and residential mortgage loans held-for-sale as of March 31, 2015:



					Significant Input
					Range				Weighted Average
	Carrying		Fair		Discount		Loss		Discount		Loss
Loan Type	Value		Value		Rate		Severity		Rate		Severity
Mezzanine	$	65,862	$	66,956	5.0%-20.0%		0%-100%		8.6	%	27.9	%
Bank Loan	112,459		127,936		15.0%-29.3%		0%-100%		22.0	%	25.7	%
B-Note	18,891		18,891		12.0	%	0.0	%	12.0	%	0.0	%
Whole Loan	39		39		7.5	%	0.0	%	7.5	%	0.0	%
Total Real Estate Related and other Loans Held-for-Sale, Net	$	197,251	$	213,822



					Significant Input (Weighted Average)

	Carrying		Fair		Discount		Prepayment		Constant		Loss
Loan Type	Value		Value		Rate		Speed		Default Rate		Severity
Residential Loans	3,735		3,889		13.0	%	0.2	%	18.2	%	4.9	%
Total Residential Mortgage Loans, Held-for-Sale, Net	$	3,735	$	3,889

Liabilities for Which Fair Value Is Only Disclosed

The following table summarizes the level of the fair value hierarchy, valuation techniques and inputs used for estimating each class of liabilities not measured at fair value in the statement of financial position but for which fair value is disclosed:



Type of Liabilities Not Measured At Fair Value for Which Fair Value Is Disclosed	Fair Value Hierarchy		Valuation Techniques and Significant Inputs
CDO bonds payable	Level 3	Valuation technique is based on discounted cash flows. Significant inputs include:
		l	Underlying security and loan prepayment, default and cumulative loss expectations
		l	Amount and timing of expected future cash flows
		l	Market yields and credit spreads implied by comparisons to transactions of similar tranches of CDO debt by the varying levels of subordination

Other bonds and notes payable	Level 3	Valuation technique is based on discounted cash flows. Significant inputs include:
		l	Amount and timing of expected future cash flows
		l	Interest rates
		l	Broker quotations
		l	Market yields and credit spreads implied by comparisons to transactions of similar tranches of securitized debt by the varying levels of subordination

Repurchase agreements	Level 2	Valuation technique is based on market comparables. Significant variables include:
		l	Amount and timing of expected future cash flows
		l	Interest rates
		l	Collateral funding spreads

Golf credit facilities	Level 3	Valuation technique is based on discounted cash flows. Significant inputs include:
		l	Amount and timing of expected future cash flows
		l	Interest rates
		l	Credit spread of golf

Junior subordinated notes payable	Level 3	Valuation technique is based on discounted cash flows. Significant inputs include:
		l	Amount and timing of expected future cash flows
		l	Interest rates
		l	Market yields and the credit spread of Newcastle

- Definition

The entire disclosure for the fair value of financial instruments (as defined), including financial assets and financial liabilities (collectively, as defined), and the measurements of those instruments as well as disclosures related to the fair value of non-financial assets and liabilities. Such disclosures about the financial instruments, assets, and liabilities would include: (1) the fair value of the required items together with their carrying amounts (as appropriate); (2) for items for which it is not practicable to estimate fair value, disclosure would include: (a) information pertinent to estimating fair value (including, carrying amount, effective interest rate, and maturity, and (b) the reasons why it is not practicable to estimate fair value; (3) significant concentrations of credit risk including: (a) information about the activity, region, or economic characteristics identifying a concentration, (b) the maximum amount of loss the entity is exposed to based on the gross fair value of the related item, (c) policy for requiring collateral or other security and information as to accessing such collateral or security, and (d) the nature and brief description of such collateral or security; (4) quantitative information about market risks and how such risks are managed; (5) for items measured on both a recurring and nonrecurring basis information regarding the inputs used to develop the fair value measurement; and (6) for items presented in the financial statement for which fair value measurement is elected: (a) information necessary to understand the reasons for the election, (b) discussion of the effect of fair value changes on earnings, (c) a description of [similar groups] items for which the election is made and the relation thereof to the balance sheet, the aggregate carrying value of items included in the balance sheet that are not eligible for the election; (7) all other required (as defined) and desired information.

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